* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/26/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 48 43 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 48 43 37 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 53 47 41 36 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 9 7 7 8 7 3 6 5 14 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 9 10 4 8 0 1 -1 2 -2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 111 108 134 148 148 158 209 306 310 284 288 297 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.4 23.7 22.8 22.5 20.8 21.7 21.2 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.6 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 108 101 91 88 70 80 74 72 77 81 87 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 79 77 72 71 65 62 57 59 56 56 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 24 25 24 19 16 14 12 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 115 127 129 125 110 88 63 56 46 43 36 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 72 54 10 -20 -7 -4 2 -5 -3 -16 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 2 6 10 0 6 1 7 5 8 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 691 739 779 852 941 1092 1288 1498 1718 1885 2028 1858 1673 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.3 117.5 118.9 120.2 122.9 125.7 128.3 130.8 133.2 135.3 137.1 138.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -17. -21. -24. -27. -30. -35. -39. -43. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -20. -25. -27. -29. -29. -27. -25. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -17. -23. -37. -47. -55. -62. -67. -70. -72. -74. -74. -74. -75. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.8 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/26/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##