* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 76 76 72 62 48 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 75 76 76 72 62 48 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 74 73 69 64 52 41 31 25 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 13 9 7 8 2 3 10 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 3 3 5 5 0 4 -1 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 110 100 116 115 140 136 144 276 282 355 351 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 26.8 25.6 24.8 24.8 22.7 21.4 21.0 22.1 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.3 22.7 22.2 22.3 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 133 120 111 112 90 76 72 83 73 75 79 85 88 82 83 86 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 80 77 73 70 65 59 61 60 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 25 27 24 23 20 17 14 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 88 105 117 128 124 102 78 62 59 54 55 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 89 60 62 79 33 -13 -16 -9 -13 -5 -18 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 -3 0 0 3 3 3 6 8 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 607 618 656 711 752 863 1036 1177 1371 1587 1808 1961 1978 1781 1607 1486 1359 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.2 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.8 113.0 114.2 115.3 116.4 118.9 121.5 124.1 126.6 129.1 131.5 133.7 135.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -31. -35. -40. -43. -48. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -7. -13. -17. -20. -22. -22. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 6. 2. -8. -22. -36. -47. -56. -63. -67. -71. -72. -73. -74. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.7 111.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.6% 25.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 8.1% 4.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.9% 11.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##