* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/25/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 67 67 60 48 38 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 67 67 60 48 38 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 64 61 52 41 32 25 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 13 12 11 18 11 6 7 5 3 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 5 2 9 3 5 0 2 -4 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 93 102 90 104 102 98 91 106 42 12 42 358 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.0 25.8 24.9 24.3 22.3 21.4 21.6 21.6 21.1 21.5 22.1 22.8 22.2 22.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 135 122 113 107 86 76 78 78 73 77 83 89 84 84 93 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -50.4 -50.9 -51.5 -50.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 80 78 74 70 64 61 61 62 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 27 28 26 21 20 16 14 13 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 78 93 112 132 154 117 107 77 82 74 74 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 103 106 72 52 61 -22 -13 -23 -2 -10 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 -1 0 2 0 2 4 7 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 585 597 603 636 691 789 956 1117 1289 1508 1729 1922 2050 1854 1658 1462 1256 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.5 112.7 113.9 115.0 117.4 120.1 122.8 125.4 128.1 130.6 133.1 135.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. -26. -30. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -5. -9. -15. -18. -19. -21. -20. -18. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 7. 0. -12. -22. -35. -43. -49. -55. -58. -60. -61. -63. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.3 110.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 26.1% 19.4% 14.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 10.3% 7.0% 5.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##