* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 78 84 88 83 65 50 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 78 84 88 83 65 50 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 71 74 74 67 54 41 33 27 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 9 12 15 13 14 9 7 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 -2 -1 2 11 4 9 3 4 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 349 93 124 122 114 103 121 115 86 60 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.4 28.8 28.4 27.7 25.7 25.0 22.6 22.1 21.7 22.9 21.5 21.4 21.6 22.7 23.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 160 154 149 142 121 114 89 84 80 92 77 76 78 89 96 90 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -50.3 -51.4 -50.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 87 87 87 85 85 80 78 73 66 63 55 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 28 30 29 29 23 21 17 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 57 64 81 93 126 163 130 124 79 85 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 167 127 134 131 120 43 43 -30 -10 -7 -7 -16 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -9 -13 -1 4 -2 8 3 0 2 4 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 503 533 593 667 649 710 828 953 1137 1290 1479 1673 1872 2059 1954 1746 1538 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.5 109.7 110.9 112.1 114.5 116.9 119.4 122.0 124.7 127.2 129.5 131.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 21 15 14 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. -1. -3. -9. -12. -14. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 28. 10. -5. -21. -32. -41. -47. -51. -53. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.4 107.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 14.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 11.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 12.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 135.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.88 15.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -20.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.93 -15.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 14.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 10.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 6.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.8% 79.3% 66.3% 52.2% 37.1% 21.7% 15.4% 7.5% Logistic: 25.1% 47.9% 23.3% 13.5% 4.9% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 31.7% 16.0% 20.2% 11.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.6% 47.7% 36.6% 25.6% 14.3% 8.9% 5.3% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/25/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##