* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COSME EP032013 06/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 57 64 80 87 81 69 55 44 33 26 23 19 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 57 64 80 87 81 69 55 44 33 26 23 19 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 60 67 65 56 45 36 30 25 21 19 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 16 10 7 13 16 14 9 9 5 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -2 1 2 7 5 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 26 32 12 33 59 94 95 88 90 67 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 28.5 27.3 25.5 24.4 22.5 22.5 22.2 23.1 21.7 21.8 22.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 161 162 162 150 138 119 108 88 88 84 94 79 80 82 95 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 88 88 89 89 87 87 85 80 80 74 69 65 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 20 19 25 26 24 22 18 16 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 46 57 64 91 117 153 149 128 108 88 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 119 146 168 173 149 67 20 28 -16 4 7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 2 0 3 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 648 609 582 586 581 690 722 807 908 1041 1207 1366 1548 1747 1945 2122 1892 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.5 19.2 19.7 19.9 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.6 106.3 107.3 108.3 110.6 112.9 115.4 117.9 120.4 122.9 125.3 127.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 13 12 13 12 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 56 59 51 34 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 17. 15. 11. 8. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 5. 8. 12. 13. 11. 6. 4. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 22. 29. 45. 52. 46. 34. 20. 9. -1. -9. -12. -16. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 104.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 12.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.91 10.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -41.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.96 -10.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.46 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 52.5% 38.0% 24.3% 17.3% 18.9% 53.2% 17.8% Logistic: 2.2% 27.7% 11.7% 6.7% 3.2% 20.3% 33.7% 6.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 16.3% 17.5% 4.5% 1.4% 24.0% 10.1% 9.8% Consensus: 5.7% 32.2% 22.4% 11.8% 7.3% 21.1% 32.3% 11.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032013 COSME 06/24/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##