* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 55 54 50 44 34 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 44 37 34 31 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 46 38 34 31 33 33 31 27 23 20 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 25 24 25 27 40 54 71 73 46 25 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 1 0 6 1 -3 7 24 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 217 214 213 213 233 248 269 277 280 265 232 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 26.4 25.3 25.0 22.8 16.3 10.0 8.2 5.9 14.6 13.9 12.3 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 120 111 109 96 76 71 70 70 75 73 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 109 102 100 89 73 69 69 69 72 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -53.0 -49.9 -47.8 -46.9 -48.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 68 70 70 70 71 62 56 60 56 58 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 16 13 12 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 41 50 66 81 89 26 -31 8 87 153 164 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 108 76 59 92 39 57 3 -38 -17 8 36 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 26 15 6 14 -17 36 14 -3 -45 -15 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 84 -100 -23 -40 -82 124 101 185 339 1083 1468 918 435 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 30.3 31.7 33.5 35.2 39.3 42.7 45.0 46.3 46.8 48.2 50.6 52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.9 82.6 81.4 79.6 77.9 72.9 66.1 58.0 48.7 38.5 30.0 23.3 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 20 23 26 29 31 32 34 32 27 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 15 CX,CY: 10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -22. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -31. -38. -42. -45. -52. -57. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -9. -15. -16. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -21. -37. -56. -67. -75. -80. -88. -90. -91. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.9 83.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.30 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.17 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.3% 9.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.0% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 44 37 34 31 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 47 44 41 40 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 48 45 44 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 41 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT