* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDREA AL012013 06/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 56 56 52 47 42 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 54 43 37 33 32 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 55 46 38 34 33 33 33 29 23 18 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 28 28 30 34 38 58 77 77 46 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 0 1 0 3 3 -6 2 19 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 213 214 207 209 219 235 246 264 272 257 207 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.0 26.4 25.3 24.5 19.5 12.2 10.2 6.0 13.3 13.8 12.1 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 121 112 106 83 72 71 70 74 73 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 105 110 103 97 78 70 70 70 72 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 -52.2 -50.3 -47.5 -45.6 -47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 66 66 66 67 71 65 56 52 52 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 18 19 17 19 22 19 14 9 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 54 49 64 83 93 70 4 3 77 177 238 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 125 131 70 64 83 70 29 -32 -26 8 41 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 29 43 25 5 3 2 3 -54 -85 -69 -54 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 58 -112 -11 -61 56 106 59 56 798 1455 1101 585 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 29.2 30.5 32.2 33.9 37.3 40.8 44.3 46.2 46.5 48.0 50.9 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.9 83.8 82.7 81.1 79.5 75.2 69.5 62.4 53.2 42.4 33.3 26.1 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 22 23 26 30 32 35 34 29 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -24. -35. -43. -46. -50. -58. -63. -66. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. -1. -9. -17. -18. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. -3. -8. -22. -43. -61. -66. -68. -76. -79. -79. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.8 84.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.15 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.5% 9.3% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 4.8% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012013 ANDREA 06/06/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 43 37 33 32 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 38 32 28 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 40 36 35 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 36 35 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT