* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MINDY AL132021 09/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 50 51 51 48 43 38 35 32 28 27 26 23 23 25 26 V (KT) LAND 40 40 35 38 38 35 30 24 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 47 36 39 40 38 33 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 27 28 34 37 46 42 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 4 5 0 3 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 200 195 178 179 197 200 209 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 28.6 28.3 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 160 162 163 147 142 142 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 145 152 149 127 122 116 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -52.2 -51.2 -51.9 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 4 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 56 53 49 41 40 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -5 4 1 -16 -20 -59 -86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 24 15 26 2 23 -1 23 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -14 -10 -27 -32 -17 -6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 25 -12 -83 124 231 327 501 716 726 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.6 33.0 33.4 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.4 83.9 82.4 80.0 77.5 74.1 71.3 68.4 68.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 18 22 19 13 12 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 32 4 44 80 36 24 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 18 CX,CY: 14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -11. -17. -22. -27. -31. -35. -40. -43. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 11. 11. 8. 3. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -17. -17. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.5 85.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132021 MINDY 09/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.10 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.2% 10.5% 7.1% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 15.4% 11.2% 4.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 10.9% 7.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132021 MINDY 09/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132021 MINDY 09/09/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 35 38 38 35 30 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 34 37 37 34 29 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 39 36 31 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT