* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTYONE AL312020 11/13/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 56 65 78 89 97 101 98 91 85 88 90 93 92 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 56 65 78 89 97 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 52 60 72 89 99 55 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 8 4 2 5 7 8 11 8 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 -1 -4 -4 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 233 234 238 239 324 88 108 91 66 45 30 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.6 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 155 153 158 162 145 146 149 142 144 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 149 148 147 154 158 139 140 141 134 137 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 8 6 7 7 7 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 68 68 70 68 68 70 71 71 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 16 18 23 26 28 30 26 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 91 90 81 78 79 85 100 117 150 171 155 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 55 71 62 103 80 84 100 79 97 87 55 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 -2 0 -3 -1 0 1 0 -3 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 300 294 298 310 332 440 377 183 11 -100 -110 -129 -130 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.2 74.7 75.2 75.8 76.4 77.9 79.7 81.5 83.1 84.6 86.0 87.3 88.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 54 52 53 53 57 49 26 28 17 30 24 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 15. 18. 20. 14. 6. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 30. 43. 54. 62. 66. 63. 56. 50. 53. 55. 58. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 74.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 36.4% 24.2% 8.8% 8.0% 20.3% 33.7% 64.2% Logistic: 12.5% 41.5% 24.6% 12.2% 4.1% 33.4% 46.3% 59.5% Bayesian: 11.4% 52.9% 25.8% 8.9% 4.7% 28.3% 48.6% 53.9% Consensus: 10.8% 43.6% 24.9% 10.0% 5.6% 27.3% 42.9% 59.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 THIRTYONE 11/13/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 50 56 65 78 89 97 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 50 59 72 83 91 47 29 23 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 51 64 75 83 39 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 40 53 64 72 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT