* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 51 50 48 41 31 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 51 50 48 41 31 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 50 49 49 47 43 36 31 28 28 31 33 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 38 31 31 35 20 15 39 38 38 25 13 15 39 58 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -6 -7 -1 -3 -1 -4 -4 1 2 2 15 26 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 248 243 250 263 274 345 31 20 9 358 1 221 205 218 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.5 22.8 22.5 22.5 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.0 21.8 21.3 18.9 17.3 14.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 91 89 89 87 86 85 84 84 85 85 80 77 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 84 81 80 79 77 76 75 74 74 75 77 74 73 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.7 -57.1 -57.4 -57.8 -58.3 -57.5 -57.6 -57.2 -57.0 -57.0 -57.4 -57.6 -56.1 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 39 39 38 41 41 43 45 39 34 34 47 57 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 28 27 27 27 25 23 20 15 12 8 7 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 34 33 29 22 -1 3 17 -6 -53 -71 -47 11 33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 32 57 39 7 65 -16 -35 -27 -38 -17 5 43 20 40 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -13 -13 -8 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 0 -18 -18 -146 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1770 1684 1598 1503 1409 1247 1128 1023 942 876 871 918 697 408 413 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.8 32.0 32.3 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.1 33.0 34.7 37.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.9 30.8 29.6 28.4 27.2 25.1 23.6 22.4 21.5 20.7 19.9 19.1 17.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 7 6 5 3 4 7 13 21 25 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 11 CX,CY: 8/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -23. -22. -25. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 19. 17. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -14. -22. -28. -34. -36. -33. -35. -33. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -14. -24. -37. -46. -52. -52. -52. -63. -65. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.0 31.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 52 51 50 48 41 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 51 50 48 41 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 48 46 39 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 43 41 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT