* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 57 54 51 46 43 40 41 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 57 54 51 46 43 40 41 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 61 58 54 48 44 43 44 43 40 36 32 29 29 30 32 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 57 60 60 54 47 46 29 34 29 38 37 27 30 24 12 34 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -7 -4 0 -6 0 -4 -4 -3 -3 3 -4 -3 -1 -6 5 SHEAR DIR 227 237 242 241 242 260 269 295 302 346 357 5 345 339 275 215 213 SST (C) 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.1 22.6 22.4 22.0 21.8 21.5 21.1 20.5 19.4 18.1 16.5 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 101 98 97 93 90 89 86 85 83 82 80 78 76 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 89 87 86 83 81 79 77 75 74 73 72 72 71 69 67 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.4 -57.4 -57.7 -57.6 -57.3 -57.9 -58.7 -58.4 -58.1 -58.0 -58.0 -58.3 -58.7 -58.9 -59.3 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 39 41 42 41 46 51 54 53 55 59 59 56 55 59 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 24 24 26 27 26 26 27 25 23 20 16 13 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 78 68 56 49 35 51 62 35 23 16 -5 -40 -66 -87 -65 -27 -53 200 MB DIV 54 38 48 42 50 40 62 71 27 -31 -27 -23 -44 21 21 49 46 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -14 -15 -7 -18 -8 8 14 17 11 18 28 42 52 -6 -56 LAND (KM) 2143 2044 1948 1864 1766 1588 1395 1209 1056 914 841 765 680 548 431 303 457 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.3 31.0 31.7 32.2 32.7 33.1 33.6 34.3 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.7 35.6 34.4 33.3 32.2 29.8 27.2 24.7 22.5 20.4 18.8 17.5 16.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 10 13 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -29. -33. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -15. -21. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -37. -37. -39. -37. -38. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -0. -4. -8. -14. -19. -22. -24. -23. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -19. -27. -36. -45. -52. -58. -59. -58. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.3 36.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 55.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 57 54 51 46 43 40 41 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 53 50 45 42 39 40 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 50 45 42 39 40 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 42 39 36 37 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT