* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 57 57 57 51 43 34 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 57 57 57 51 43 34 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 57 57 57 52 45 40 35 30 26 23 23 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 14 16 14 17 25 31 28 30 39 39 41 57 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 7 5 10 13 12 9 2 6 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 337 317 303 309 307 286 269 293 270 261 251 257 244 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.0 25.8 24.4 23.2 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 143 141 139 127 121 118 116 111 109 98 91 91 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 123 125 124 123 120 109 102 101 98 93 92 84 79 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.2 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 3 2 0 2 2 4 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 49 51 52 53 54 48 39 30 28 26 28 24 29 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 21 20 20 17 14 10 9 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 74 64 52 30 18 3 -9 -22 -57 -85 -101 -104 -75 -27 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 3 -1 1 -22 -9 -17 -36 -87 -25 42 18 18 63 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -2 1 4 1 3 -2 0 5 18 12 8 8 -84 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 103 119 137 167 204 293 296 270 271 212 163 127 27 -89 -207 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.6 24.0 25.0 25.9 26.6 27.2 27.9 28.6 29.2 30.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.3 85.3 85.4 85.3 85.3 85.2 85.1 85.2 85.5 86.0 86.4 86.6 86.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 3 3 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 85 79 69 64 54 35 17 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. -29. -33. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 1. -7. -16. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. -41. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.6 85.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 21.9% 13.6% 9.6% 8.2% 10.4% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 11.9% 16.1% 12.3% 5.8% 2.3% 6.3% 2.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 13.7% 9.2% 5.3% 3.6% 5.6% 5.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 57 57 57 51 43 34 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 52 53 53 53 47 39 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 47 41 33 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT