* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 50 52 51 48 42 34 31 27 26 20 18 18 21 22 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 50 52 51 48 42 34 31 27 26 20 18 18 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 49 49 46 41 36 32 28 25 22 20 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 10 15 18 19 22 32 22 29 29 35 27 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 6 3 11 11 9 4 2 0 7 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 344 341 322 307 320 297 275 289 289 276 255 265 252 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 143 144 143 139 125 119 118 117 115 111 108 106 103 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 123 126 125 120 107 101 99 99 97 93 90 88 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 7 4 3 1 2 1 5 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 51 52 54 49 42 31 28 27 27 31 36 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 22 22 20 18 15 11 9 6 5 3 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 78 69 60 45 15 6 0 -27 -38 -70 -98 -105 -82 -40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -8 0 0 3 0 -19 -22 -64 -58 3 28 47 46 41 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -5 -3 2 1 7 2 -1 2 9 9 8 -3 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 131 140 149 177 213 302 317 288 288 259 209 155 125 101 77 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.5 23.9 25.0 26.0 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.5 28.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.4 85.5 85.6 85.6 85.6 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.6 85.7 85.9 86.1 86.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 3 4 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 70 64 58 49 43 30 13 10 7 6 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -18. -22. -27. -30. -33. -33. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -3. -11. -14. -18. -19. -25. -27. -27. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.0 85.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.63 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.5% 10.1% 7.2% 6.5% 8.7% 10.6% 8.1% Logistic: 7.0% 14.4% 9.6% 4.3% 2.1% 4.2% 2.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 10.4% 6.7% 3.9% 2.9% 4.3% 4.4% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/10/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 49 50 52 51 48 42 34 31 27 26 20 18 18 21 22 18HR AGO 45 44 47 48 50 49 46 40 32 29 25 24 18 16 16 19 20 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 43 40 34 26 23 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 36 33 27 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT