* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 45 47 49 52 46 43 36 33 28 24 23 21 18 17 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 45 47 49 52 46 43 36 33 28 24 23 21 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 41 41 42 44 45 43 40 36 32 28 25 24 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 12 13 16 18 18 23 33 27 31 29 22 20 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 0 5 3 11 8 6 3 0 -3 3 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 313 331 334 329 345 304 308 283 277 288 292 279 276 275 238 249 251 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.1 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 142 141 141 132 123 119 119 116 112 102 93 91 91 91 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 123 121 121 114 105 102 100 98 95 87 79 77 77 77 77 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 5 6 4 4 2 4 5 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 52 54 55 57 53 46 40 39 36 38 34 31 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 22 23 21 24 20 19 15 14 10 9 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 144 114 93 79 74 51 32 11 13 -16 -36 -63 -59 -41 -58 -64 -61 200 MB DIV -14 -27 -13 -10 5 6 14 -11 -14 -52 -32 6 68 59 41 13 3 700-850 TADV -4 2 1 0 -1 7 6 7 2 6 0 9 13 18 13 9 -3 LAND (KM) 171 166 175 196 218 311 368 320 262 211 150 93 75 75 75 75 75 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 23.9 23.6 23.7 23.8 24.8 25.7 26.5 27.2 27.8 28.4 29.0 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.8 85.4 85.6 85.8 85.9 85.8 85.7 85.4 85.0 84.7 84.4 84.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 4 2 3 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 81 106 60 45 35 17 9 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -1. -6. -9. -15. -18. -25. -26. -25. -27. -27. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 7. 1. -2. -9. -12. -17. -21. -22. -24. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.2 84.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 14.7% 9.6% 7.5% 7.0% 9.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.2% 2.5% 1.4% 0.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0% 2.6% 3.6% 3.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 43 45 47 49 52 46 43 36 33 28 24 23 21 18 17 18HR AGO 45 44 44 46 48 50 53 47 44 37 34 29 25 24 22 19 18 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 47 50 44 41 34 31 26 22 21 19 16 15 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 39 42 36 33 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT