* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 55 57 56 56 53 52 43 36 25 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 55 57 56 56 53 52 43 32 30 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 56 59 61 59 58 54 47 34 32 25 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 19 12 8 10 14 14 15 22 24 39 43 48 49 60 53 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -1 0 1 -2 6 0 -1 4 6 1 0 3 9 1 -8 SHEAR DIR 275 309 318 327 327 343 303 316 280 267 270 296 289 276 274 273 282 SST (C) 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.7 25.6 22.7 21.9 23.2 25.9 26.7 26.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 120 129 136 141 141 134 123 119 108 88 85 92 112 121 116 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 107 114 119 121 120 116 106 101 92 78 75 81 96 104 100 87 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -56.0 -55.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 5 7 3 4 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 55 57 57 56 57 58 58 52 47 44 40 36 35 42 41 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 22 21 22 21 21 20 20 18 16 13 10 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 146 141 150 138 108 85 63 27 17 7 -14 -30 -110 -146 -146 -142 -130 200 MB DIV 10 -4 -17 -23 -12 0 8 0 1 15 -35 -26 -48 -2 84 25 35 700-850 TADV 3 -5 -2 2 1 -1 5 9 6 1 7 3 8 10 41 15 37 LAND (KM) 25 124 209 206 197 224 305 235 156 98 27 -93 31 103 137 160 279 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.3 24.4 25.2 26.4 27.3 28.2 29.0 29.9 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.3 82.3 83.4 84.0 84.6 85.0 85.0 84.7 84.3 83.8 83.2 82.4 81.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 6 4 2 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 10 20 46 96 75 34 12 4 0 0 0 0 16 10 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -24. -29. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -15. -18. -23. -26. -27. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 1. 1. -2. -3. -12. -19. -30. -39. -44. -48. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.0 81.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.8% 8.8% 6.8% 5.9% 8.9% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 4.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.8% 3.8% 2.6% 2.1% 3.4% 3.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 54 55 57 56 56 53 52 43 32 30 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 55 57 56 56 53 52 43 32 30 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 52 54 53 53 50 49 40 29 27 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 48 47 47 44 43 34 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT