* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 58 58 58 60 59 59 55 50 42 33 26 20 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 58 58 58 60 59 59 55 50 42 31 29 23 21 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 57 57 60 63 65 63 60 55 47 33 31 27 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 18 11 6 11 8 17 13 21 24 33 39 41 44 41 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -2 0 -2 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 5 5 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 249 275 307 318 305 328 312 302 254 272 245 289 285 282 263 260 254 SST (C) 27.5 26.1 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.6 28.1 27.4 27.0 26.7 25.4 22.4 22.3 24.4 26.9 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 115 121 128 135 142 135 126 121 118 106 87 87 100 123 124 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 103 108 113 118 121 116 108 103 100 91 77 77 87 105 105 101 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.3 -56.3 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 2 2 1 2 2 4 700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 57 58 57 59 59 58 53 47 43 42 41 47 44 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 22 21 21 20 21 20 21 20 18 15 12 9 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 174 161 152 158 142 97 104 56 33 25 30 31 -5 -58 -113 -91 -86 200 MB DIV 75 17 1 3 -6 -17 14 -9 5 -2 -1 -45 -30 -5 58 76 33 700-850 TADV 6 3 -2 1 2 0 0 6 1 5 0 2 5 14 20 25 5 LAND (KM) 95 47 108 189 204 216 285 270 207 138 77 20 -63 82 119 145 160 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.8 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.4 25.0 25.9 26.6 27.3 28.1 29.0 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.1 82.2 83.0 83.9 84.8 85.0 84.8 84.5 84.1 83.6 83.0 82.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 6 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 1 13 18 40 90 43 21 11 5 0 0 0 1 36 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -15. -20. -25. -29. -32. -32. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 0. -5. -13. -22. -29. -35. -37. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.5 80.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 16.7% 10.8% 8.0% 7.1% 10.2% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 9.5% 5.5% 1.2% 0.5% 1.6% 1.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.9% 5.5% 3.1% 2.5% 3.9% 4.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 58 58 58 60 59 59 55 50 42 31 29 23 21 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 55 55 57 56 56 52 47 39 28 26 20 18 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 52 54 53 53 49 44 36 25 23 17 15 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 47 46 46 42 37 29 18 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT