* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 59 59 61 60 60 56 54 46 41 37 32 31 27 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 59 59 61 60 60 56 54 46 41 37 32 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 55 57 60 62 62 59 54 49 43 39 36 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 22 17 10 11 13 17 16 21 18 26 20 25 24 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -7 -2 0 -3 4 0 2 3 3 5 3 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 255 246 268 303 321 317 337 307 306 294 275 284 299 287 275 267 246 SST (C) 28.6 28.1 26.4 26.6 27.3 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 25.7 24.6 23.0 21.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 138 117 119 127 138 139 135 126 122 119 116 107 98 88 82 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 124 104 106 112 120 118 115 108 104 100 97 91 84 77 73 74 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 61 58 57 57 57 57 57 57 55 50 45 45 42 40 39 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 23 22 21 22 21 21 20 19 15 13 10 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 182 186 165 160 164 121 93 71 51 22 17 -2 -5 -20 -43 -6 -78 200 MB DIV 103 81 33 2 -13 -9 3 -5 13 -8 -5 -33 -19 -8 39 61 12 700-850 TADV 15 11 4 -1 -2 1 0 4 0 8 5 5 1 -3 -4 23 16 LAND (KM) 102 129 50 82 172 198 236 295 266 194 143 103 57 27 7 -20 -88 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.6 25.1 25.8 26.5 27.0 27.3 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.2 80.0 80.8 81.8 82.8 84.1 84.8 85.0 84.7 84.3 84.0 83.7 83.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 5 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 3 10 17 57 69 41 22 10 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -11. -13. -19. -22. -26. -29. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 5. 5. 1. -1. -9. -14. -18. -23. -24. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.5 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.36 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.4% 10.4% 7.5% 6.7% 9.7% 10.9% 9.2% Logistic: 1.7% 11.6% 6.8% 1.3% 0.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.4% 5.7% 2.9% 2.4% 3.9% 4.1% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 59 59 59 61 60 60 56 54 46 41 37 32 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 55 56 56 56 58 57 57 53 51 43 38 34 29 24 24 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 52 54 53 53 49 47 39 34 30 25 20 20 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 45 47 46 46 42 40 32 27 23 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT