* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 52 60 62 58 51 46 43 36 33 27 26 24 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 41 48 50 46 39 34 31 25 21 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 30 32 31 31 30 31 29 27 24 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 20 26 33 26 21 11 14 15 14 13 23 24 28 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 14 8 3 5 0 1 4 2 13 5 7 4 4 1 7 SHEAR DIR 244 248 251 252 266 247 257 356 350 338 306 288 285 285 283 260 243 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.0 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 157 159 158 153 135 127 129 128 125 120 119 117 114 107 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 153 150 149 147 137 120 111 111 109 106 102 101 99 96 91 85 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 1 3 1 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 72 67 61 53 48 44 40 40 33 29 27 26 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 23 24 25 30 32 30 26 22 19 17 13 10 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 102 113 143 156 179 181 178 145 86 41 25 2 -14 -55 -52 -71 200 MB DIV 92 96 113 90 57 54 41 24 -8 5 -20 -2 -41 -61 -16 -10 35 700-850 TADV 6 6 9 10 24 16 7 7 0 -4 0 6 -3 -3 2 -4 0 LAND (KM) 226 312 297 236 138 -44 89 185 249 292 313 316 301 250 188 117 64 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.3 20.1 20.8 22.6 24.0 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.5 84.3 83.2 82.4 81.6 81.0 81.6 82.9 84.0 84.8 85.3 85.6 85.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 79 70 72 83 89 54 56 19 27 29 22 19 14 7 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -12. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 13. 8. 2. -2. -6. -13. -16. -21. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 30. 32. 28. 21. 16. 13. 6. 3. -3. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 85.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.81 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.6% 10.5% 6.7% 6.1% 7.8% 0.0% 10.1% Logistic: 5.7% 8.7% 3.9% 2.1% 0.6% 2.9% 2.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.8% 4.8% 3.0% 2.3% 3.6% 0.8% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 43 41 48 50 46 39 34 31 25 21 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 37 44 46 42 35 30 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 31 38 40 36 29 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 21 28 30 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT