* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 38 42 46 48 53 52 51 46 42 38 37 35 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 38 42 39 40 45 44 43 38 34 30 29 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 26 28 27 26 26 26 25 23 22 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 24 28 27 33 33 30 12 13 15 15 18 23 21 29 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 6 7 9 8 4 3 -1 1 -1 9 2 3 0 8 8 SHEAR DIR 241 244 245 258 265 263 272 264 271 1 360 313 310 298 284 265 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.4 24.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 156 155 157 154 145 138 137 138 132 126 123 116 103 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 149 149 147 145 138 127 121 119 119 113 108 106 100 89 82 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.8 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 79 78 76 75 68 60 58 53 49 45 42 37 30 28 35 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 20 20 23 24 25 26 24 22 17 14 11 9 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 126 128 110 88 104 142 180 186 179 160 110 66 34 0 -12 -9 7 200 MB DIV 157 143 125 107 79 75 61 26 31 1 -7 -10 -12 -46 -48 4 -12 700-850 TADV 5 9 10 7 10 17 23 7 7 2 -2 0 2 0 0 12 -28 LAND (KM) 117 174 254 331 290 135 -44 39 112 182 256 332 344 308 191 52 -65 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.8 22.4 23.5 24.1 24.4 24.8 25.3 26.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.1 86.1 85.2 84.1 83.1 81.4 80.7 81.3 82.5 83.9 84.8 85.4 85.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 12 11 10 7 6 6 5 4 3 4 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 75 83 74 69 75 74 45 68 46 55 57 28 19 15 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -16. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 8. 5. -2. -7. -12. -14. -18. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 8. 12. 16. 18. 23. 22. 21. 16. 13. 8. 7. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 87.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 17.3% 10.3% 6.0% 5.5% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 13.6% 5.3% 2.1% 0.7% 1.5% 1.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 10.3% 5.2% 2.7% 2.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/06/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 37 38 42 39 40 45 44 43 38 34 30 29 27 24 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 36 40 37 38 43 42 41 36 32 28 27 25 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 31 35 32 33 38 37 36 31 27 23 22 20 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 22 23 28 27 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT