* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 50 56 60 63 59 52 50 46 39 32 28 20 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 50 43 50 53 48 41 39 35 28 21 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 33 29 32 31 29 29 30 30 29 26 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 28 27 30 39 34 15 8 14 12 17 21 29 25 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 9 8 11 9 4 6 -4 0 3 5 13 8 5 5 11 SHEAR DIR 225 226 235 239 245 259 269 247 264 16 343 339 297 278 293 266 254 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 27.7 26.4 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.5 25.4 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 157 156 155 157 152 131 116 128 130 128 126 123 117 107 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 149 148 147 145 137 115 101 112 111 109 107 104 100 92 82 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 0 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 74 74 72 64 61 52 49 42 43 40 32 28 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 21 24 24 27 32 34 30 26 25 23 18 13 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 120 123 112 95 88 145 171 192 186 184 125 72 24 9 -35 -38 -18 200 MB DIV 158 175 153 123 105 86 71 42 20 14 -23 -8 -26 -33 -73 -22 -2 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 9 7 17 30 20 5 2 0 0 3 0 3 8 -6 LAND (KM) 84 119 194 283 231 106 -33 117 70 180 250 284 302 288 196 88 -11 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.3 19.8 21.1 22.7 24.1 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.3 86.5 85.7 84.6 83.6 81.6 80.5 80.7 81.7 83.2 84.2 84.9 85.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 11 11 10 8 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 79 92 79 73 75 74 41 22 8 20 27 28 28 17 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -17. -20. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 11. 18. 22. 16. 10. 8. 4. -3. -10. -14. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 26. 30. 33. 29. 22. 20. 16. 9. 2. -2. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 87.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.19 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 28.7% 12.1% 7.5% 7.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 21.6% 10.8% 4.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 16.8% 7.6% 4.0% 2.8% 3.6% 0.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 47 50 43 50 53 48 41 39 35 28 21 17 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 46 39 46 49 44 37 35 31 24 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 39 32 39 42 37 30 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 28 21 28 31 26 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT