* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 52 60 64 67 73 73 71 67 64 60 56 54 51 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 52 60 64 67 45 48 46 42 40 35 32 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 45 45 45 34 37 37 38 41 43 43 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 17 15 21 21 25 34 25 13 9 14 11 9 14 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 5 9 11 18 9 2 4 -7 -3 2 6 13 7 13 4 SHEAR DIR 185 230 237 247 234 239 258 264 237 251 354 325 313 303 279 298 278 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 154 155 156 156 153 153 149 151 142 140 138 131 125 123 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 145 146 147 146 141 137 129 133 125 122 119 112 107 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 80 78 75 76 71 68 62 59 55 54 51 50 43 37 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 18 21 25 26 29 34 33 30 27 26 24 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 111 116 129 132 112 107 162 163 184 184 174 112 83 38 18 -16 -38 200 MB DIV 114 130 156 166 135 103 66 78 43 12 -8 -16 -6 -20 -38 -55 -8 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 6 2 6 14 21 11 0 2 1 0 0 -2 2 4 LAND (KM) 43 82 107 130 192 223 152 0 -11 22 114 196 285 365 402 333 235 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.8 20.9 22.0 22.9 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.8 87.5 87.1 86.4 85.7 84.1 82.5 81.1 80.8 81.7 82.8 84.0 85.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 6 4 5 6 6 4 4 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 58 79 87 76 79 81 57 45 86 51 59 48 20 13 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. 33. 33. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 25. 24. 19. 14. 11. 8. 3. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 30. 34. 37. 43. 43. 41. 37. 34. 30. 26. 24. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 87.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.44 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.77 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.78 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 29.3% 14.9% 7.4% 6.8% 9.6% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 36.9% 18.4% 5.5% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 22.3% 11.3% 4.5% 2.9% 3.9% 5.0% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/06/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 46 52 60 64 67 45 48 46 42 40 35 32 30 26 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 55 59 62 40 43 41 37 35 30 27 25 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 46 50 53 31 34 32 28 26 21 18 16 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 34 38 41 19 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT