* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 26 28 30 35 41 43 43 45 50 55 56 60 62 66 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 44 47 46 36 46 50 52 56 57 61 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 30 31 33 34 31 27 25 27 26 27 31 37 46 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 12 13 18 22 28 31 32 20 5 7 0 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 5 11 11 9 6 1 3 1 2 -1 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 132 155 231 226 248 229 243 261 276 267 264 259 357 194 264 261 316 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.3 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 153 155 155 155 156 151 138 130 132 133 133 137 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 142 141 144 146 147 144 141 134 120 113 114 114 113 117 119 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 6 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 84 81 81 80 75 73 65 62 59 55 55 61 62 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 17 21 22 20 21 24 23 22 22 22 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 160 151 126 128 130 134 114 147 139 161 158 157 120 124 83 69 46 200 MB DIV 116 108 117 119 123 103 81 48 26 29 -3 0 -12 13 13 10 -4 700-850 TADV 6 2 3 5 6 2 4 11 12 4 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) -122 -60 1 48 96 195 300 196 33 -6 89 98 125 179 195 209 228 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.3 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.4 21.7 22.9 23.8 24.3 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.8 88.0 87.6 87.3 85.8 84.1 82.3 81.0 80.3 80.4 81.3 82.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 8 6 4 5 4 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 38 48 61 79 73 83 61 38 28 34 32 29 34 57 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -1. -7. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 8. 7. 8. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 18. 18. 20. 25. 30. 32. 35. 37. 41. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 87.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.67 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 22.2% 11.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 19.6% 6.2% 1.8% 0.8% 3.5% 5.2% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 14.5% 6.1% 3.0% 0.3% 1.2% 5.9% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 38 44 47 46 36 46 50 52 56 57 61 67 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 36 42 45 44 34 44 48 50 54 55 59 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 36 39 38 28 38 42 44 48 49 53 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 28 31 30 20 30 34 36 40 41 45 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT