* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 29 30 33 40 45 54 54 58 64 68 67 68 67 67 70 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 33 41 45 54 54 49 48 52 51 52 51 51 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 31 36 40 41 39 33 34 33 33 35 41 46 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 1 4 10 8 13 20 32 29 25 7 7 7 4 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 4 1 0 14 14 15 3 6 3 0 3 0 10 5 16 SHEAR DIR 90 105 107 237 236 246 239 249 270 271 265 288 19 6 302 305 317 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.8 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.3 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 152 150 149 150 153 155 156 156 155 146 136 134 133 136 138 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 144 140 139 141 144 146 146 144 139 127 118 116 115 117 119 113 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 6 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 84 81 79 79 75 70 65 60 55 50 47 43 38 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 12 13 18 21 27 26 28 31 30 27 26 24 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 172 167 153 128 128 138 111 119 151 160 167 185 161 140 95 55 44 200 MB DIV 136 131 114 122 119 127 87 90 38 63 20 26 23 10 -2 -8 -38 700-850 TADV 4 4 1 3 5 6 7 10 14 11 11 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) -168 -108 -61 -7 49 180 291 274 138 -22 33 98 123 197 241 285 353 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.5 19.6 20.8 22.2 23.3 24.0 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.1 87.5 87.4 87.3 86.2 84.7 83.0 81.6 80.6 80.5 81.1 82.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 5 6 8 9 9 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 37 37 41 50 73 73 78 82 47 37 41 37 28 41 48 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 4. 12. 11. 13. 17. 15. 9. 7. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 0. 3. 10. 15. 24. 24. 28. 34. 38. 37. 38. 37. 37. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 86.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.89 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 23.6% 11.9% 7.3% 7.1% 10.6% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 18.4% 5.1% 1.9% 1.2% 4.4% 4.9% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 15.0% 5.8% 3.1% 2.8% 5.0% 6.5% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 33 41 45 54 54 49 48 52 51 52 51 51 54 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 33 41 45 54 54 49 48 52 51 52 51 51 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 31 39 43 52 52 47 46 50 49 50 49 49 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 34 38 47 47 42 41 45 44 45 44 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT