* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP202020 11/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 33 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 33 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 38 35 31 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 36 37 37 38 38 45 44 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 11 8 5 4 6 5 2 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 224 228 235 237 227 219 219 231 249 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.1 25.7 26.0 26.6 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 125 123 125 124 123 119 122 128 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 55 52 44 38 37 34 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 15 14 13 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -7 -1 -12 -8 -1 1 24 18 39 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 75 41 37 19 -12 -18 -1 -1 -24 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 9 16 11 16 0 1 -1 0 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1176 1202 1237 1290 1329 1452 1580 1734 1888 2020 2160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.7 18.9 18.7 18.2 17.3 16.5 16.0 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.2 122.1 122.9 123.7 125.2 126.4 127.5 128.7 129.9 131.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 6 7 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -19. -28. -36. -41. -44. -46. -46. -47. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -27. -39. -51. -59. -64. -66. -67. -67. -67. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.3 120.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202020 ODALYS 11/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202020 ODALYS 11/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##