* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP202020 11/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 33 30 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 33 30 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 31 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 29 35 36 35 32 38 43 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 11 10 4 4 8 3 3 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 239 228 227 233 233 223 222 226 232 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.6 26.0 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.8 26.2 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 135 130 123 125 125 122 120 124 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 64 63 58 50 41 38 37 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 15 11 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -4 -10 -8 -17 -8 -11 11 13 19 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 88 77 52 28 -2 -17 -10 12 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 7 13 12 8 -2 -1 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1152 1162 1182 1220 1265 1373 1498 1635 1773 1927 2081 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.7 18.4 17.7 16.9 16.2 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.8 120.7 121.6 122.5 124.1 125.5 126.6 127.6 128.9 130.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -23. -31. -36. -39. -40. -40. -41. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -17. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -19. -29. -39. -47. -51. -52. -52. -52. -52. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 118.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202020 ODALYS 11/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202020 ODALYS 11/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##