* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP202020 11/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 37 35 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 37 35 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 21 25 32 35 33 33 40 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 4 12 12 4 6 5 3 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 251 244 229 226 234 222 220 224 224 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.0 25.8 26.4 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 136 135 130 126 126 122 120 126 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 67 65 63 55 47 42 40 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 14 12 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 -2 -11 -4 -19 -2 -1 25 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 122 93 77 55 11 -17 -18 0 10 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 9 7 13 0 0 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1199 1211 1213 1240 1276 1379 1492 1635 1789 1935 2090 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.2 17.6 16.8 16.0 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.0 120.0 121.0 121.9 123.6 125.2 126.5 127.7 128.8 129.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -12. -19. -26. -31. -33. -34. -34. -34. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -6. -12. -21. -29. -36. -40. -40. -40. -40. -41. -44. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 118.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202020 ODALYS 11/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202020 ODALYS 11/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##