* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP202020 11/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 36 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 20 25 27 38 37 37 39 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 2 9 7 2 4 3 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 247 248 245 235 240 231 228 229 227 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.1 26.4 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 140 135 124 126 125 122 123 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 67 66 60 52 43 41 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 18 18 15 13 11 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 8 0 -6 -13 -4 -5 13 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 109 110 89 62 25 -12 -17 -14 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 1 2 0 7 8 6 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1170 1184 1201 1209 1228 1310 1418 1543 1681 1835 1982 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.2 18.5 18.2 17.5 16.5 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.9 119.0 120.0 121.0 122.8 124.5 125.9 127.0 128.0 129.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 7 4 0 2 1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -12. -20. -27. -32. -34. -35. -35. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. -2. -8. -15. -26. -35. -40. -41. -40. -40. -40. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202020 ODALYS 11/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202020 ODALYS 11/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##