* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 115 113 109 105 96 90 89 90 92 94 100 94 86 81 77 V (KT) LAND 120 93 68 50 40 31 28 27 30 31 32 35 40 34 27 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 120 95 69 50 40 31 28 27 36 45 51 51 50 45 39 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 15 13 5 8 12 10 16 24 30 24 20 17 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -7 -3 4 -2 -2 7 8 8 -1 -3 1 3 8 3 SHEAR DIR 74 75 65 54 54 140 78 176 225 233 249 235 230 264 299 316 321 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 164 162 161 154 158 157 150 154 155 158 159 159 156 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 151 156 156 156 146 148 144 140 146 147 147 144 140 138 136 136 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 5 5 7 6 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 82 83 81 77 80 75 69 62 55 50 48 46 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 24 22 19 17 13 13 16 21 25 27 31 27 20 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 119 124 122 126 134 153 127 125 128 140 160 178 182 144 117 66 40 200 MB DIV 180 165 125 122 150 115 105 100 111 70 49 22 56 33 12 5 9 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 -1 -4 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 6 7 3 1 LAND (KM) 22 -27 -76 -146 -193 -123 -56 -25 43 138 242 269 183 97 30 -3 51 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.3 19.5 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.7 84.2 84.8 85.5 87.0 88.2 88.7 88.1 86.9 85.3 83.4 82.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 8 7 5 3 6 8 10 9 6 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 30 7 5 34 39 42 39 68 79 89 101 101 86 79 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -18. -25. -31. -36. -38. -40. -44. -46. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -7. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -21. -20. -14. -10. -8. -3. -10. -19. -25. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -24. -29. -31. -30. -28. -26. -20. -26. -34. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.7 83.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.82 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.3% 9.6% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 15.6% 5.2% 4.9% 7.8% 4.8% 5.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 3.5% 9.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 4.7% 13.2% 5.4% 3.8% 2.7% 1.7% 1.8% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 0( 33) 0( 33) 0( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 83 0( 83) 0( 83) 0( 83) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 93 68 50 40 31 28 27 30 31 32 35 40 34 27 20 20 18HR AGO 120 119 94 76 66 57 54 53 56 57 58 61 66 60 53 46 46 12HR AGO 120 117 116 98 88 79 76 75 78 79 80 83 88 82 75 68 68 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 100 91 88 87 90 91 92 95 100 94 87 80 80 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 92 89 88 91 92 93 96 101 95 88 81 81 IN 6HR 120 93 84 78 75 71 68 67 70 71 72 75 80 74 67 60 60 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT