* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 119 116 113 108 101 91 87 84 88 92 87 91 92 95 91 V (KT) LAND 125 122 84 61 46 33 29 27 27 28 32 35 31 34 35 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 125 120 85 61 45 32 28 27 27 35 42 46 47 48 49 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 14 13 6 7 13 5 11 14 17 25 21 12 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -5 0 4 -2 2 4 5 10 0 -1 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 94 78 80 76 60 81 103 135 226 239 273 265 263 263 286 286 280 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 162 166 166 165 157 159 157 150 155 157 157 156 158 159 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 154 159 160 159 149 148 145 140 148 149 145 140 140 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 5 5 7 6 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 83 83 83 78 85 81 77 68 65 58 55 51 58 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 25 22 20 17 15 12 12 14 20 23 20 22 22 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 124 116 116 119 123 151 128 112 106 119 122 146 151 188 191 184 139 200 MB DIV 182 172 155 117 96 135 68 96 99 93 74 57 15 42 35 -5 6 700-850 TADV 4 1 2 1 -1 0 4 5 0 2 1 4 10 5 1 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 43 0 -43 -108 -173 -177 -126 -89 -20 39 162 260 325 261 166 88 0 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.2 18.2 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.5 83.9 84.5 85.1 86.5 87.9 88.8 88.8 88.1 86.6 84.5 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 4 4 6 10 10 7 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 36 11 5 6 22 44 42 40 71 76 82 97 104 100 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -9. -19. -27. -34. -39. -41. -44. -48. -51. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -13. -8. -4. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 15. 17. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -26. -24. -18. -15. -18. -16. -16. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -24. -34. -38. -41. -37. -33. -38. -34. -33. -30. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.6 83.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.52 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.80 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 13.9% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 15.3% 5.2% 6.3% 10.2% 5.8% 6.5% 2.5% Bayesian: 5.2% 6.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 5.8% 11.8% 5.5% 2.2% 3.5% 2.0% 2.2% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/03/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 0( 38) 0( 38) 0( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 0( 63) 0( 63) 0( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 122 84 61 46 33 29 27 27 28 32 35 31 34 35 39 31 18HR AGO 125 124 86 63 48 35 31 29 29 30 34 37 33 36 37 41 33 12HR AGO 125 122 121 98 83 70 66 64 64 65 69 72 68 71 72 76 68 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 100 87 83 81 81 82 86 89 85 88 89 93 85 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 93 89 87 87 88 92 95 91 94 95 99 91 IN 6HR 125 122 113 107 104 98 94 92 92 93 97 100 96 99 100 104 96 IN 12HR 125 122 84 75 69 65 61 59 59 60 64 67 63 66 67 71 63