* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 132 130 125 120 111 105 94 87 79 75 73 74 78 82 85 85 V (KT) LAND 130 132 102 75 54 36 30 28 27 23 19 17 19 23 26 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 130 130 105 76 55 35 29 27 27 34 38 41 43 46 50 57 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 15 13 13 5 13 12 7 12 12 12 9 5 1 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 3 1 1 8 7 1 -2 -5 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 109 100 84 79 80 51 102 121 164 219 220 204 198 178 173 353 298 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 163 163 162 159 156 155 149 151 153 155 156 156 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 150 154 155 155 152 146 143 137 140 142 143 142 141 141 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 5 7 6 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 81 82 81 81 83 82 80 77 84 80 75 67 60 53 57 59 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 24 22 18 16 12 12 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 122 117 118 111 128 141 118 113 109 116 127 144 173 182 176 149 200 MB DIV 153 168 142 131 110 110 119 81 81 111 67 52 40 51 57 73 65 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 2 1 -2 5 3 2 2 2 0 -5 -9 -10 0 5 LAND (KM) 39 16 -22 -65 -108 -202 -145 -67 -10 43 107 188 223 272 330 386 313 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.3 83.7 84.1 84.5 85.7 87.0 88.2 88.4 88.1 87.2 86.0 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 5 3 4 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 40 38 12 8 8 39 39 39 58 74 77 68 77 99 115 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. -0. -4. -13. -23. -32. -41. -47. -49. -53. -56. -59. -60. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -8. -4. -1. 4. 8. 10. 13. 17. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -22. -25. -27. -26. -26. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -0. -5. -10. -19. -25. -36. -43. -51. -55. -57. -56. -51. -48. -45. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.0 82.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.4% 28.3% 11.7% 11.6% 11.9% 9.4% 13.0% 5.5% Bayesian: 34.2% 46.9% 24.6% 9.8% 2.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 17.5% 25.0% 12.1% 7.1% 4.6% 4.2% 4.3% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 0( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 86 0( 86) 0( 86) 0( 86) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 132 102 75 54 36 30 28 27 23 19 17 19 23 26 30 30 18HR AGO 130 129 99 72 51 33 27 25 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 130 127 126 99 78 60 54 52 51 47 43 41 43 47 50 54 54 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 99 81 75 73 72 68 64 62 64 68 71 75 75 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 93 87 85 84 80 76 74 76 80 83 87 87 IN 6HR 130 132 123 117 114 107 101 99 98 94 90 88 90 94 97 101 101 IN 12HR 130 132 102 93 87 83 77 75 74 70 66 64 66 70 73 77 77