* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 83 86 87 84 81 81 77 72 74 77 84 90 96 97 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 83 86 57 37 30 28 27 27 27 32 39 44 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 79 84 87 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 34 41 49 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 15 15 17 16 16 5 6 8 2 7 11 16 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -1 0 -2 -5 3 1 0 7 7 7 3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 149 163 138 137 117 86 89 79 105 118 153 271 239 275 279 293 289 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 157 156 161 163 160 158 155 160 157 151 155 162 164 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 150 148 147 152 155 153 149 144 148 144 139 145 153 155 152 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 5 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 84 84 82 82 82 81 79 80 83 79 77 69 64 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 26 26 23 19 15 14 12 11 13 15 20 23 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 109 110 106 119 125 124 136 164 158 146 118 126 114 118 139 153 186 200 MB DIV 99 95 111 127 140 170 123 97 87 65 84 81 60 54 33 23 45 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 5 3 3 2 0 3 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 7 LAND (KM) 301 221 140 81 22 -39 -142 -177 -145 -94 -49 -15 46 105 191 311 237 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.4 81.1 81.9 82.5 83.0 83.8 84.8 85.9 87.0 87.9 88.4 88.5 88.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 5 4 3 3 4 7 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 46 41 38 39 38 37 6 22 8 39 43 42 41 64 84 82 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -15. -19. -22. -21. -17. -12. -8. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 19. 16. 16. 12. 7. 9. 12. 19. 25. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.9 80.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 15.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 4.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.66 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 5.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.2% 61.5% 46.5% 36.7% 28.5% 37.8% 24.9% 19.8% Logistic: 38.1% 69.7% 47.8% 52.4% 45.2% 62.5% 63.2% 77.5% Bayesian: 48.6% 89.0% 69.0% 44.2% 30.0% 46.0% 12.7% 93.4% Consensus: 40.3% 73.4% 54.5% 44.4% 34.6% 48.8% 33.6% 63.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 10( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 19 22( 37) 19( 49) 0( 49) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 72 78 83 86 57 37 30 28 27 27 27 32 39 44 50 52 18HR AGO 65 64 70 75 78 49 29 22 20 19 19 19 24 31 36 42 44 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 69 40 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT