* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 70 79 88 94 103 105 101 96 88 78 70 69 71 74 78 81 V (KT) LAND 60 70 79 88 94 78 47 33 29 27 27 27 29 31 34 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 60 70 80 89 97 81 48 33 29 27 27 27 31 35 41 48 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 10 14 15 12 13 12 10 13 7 10 6 5 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 0 0 2 -3 2 5 5 5 3 1 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 129 133 137 128 131 74 76 49 45 68 124 140 133 138 211 217 108 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 158 157 157 161 165 163 160 158 163 164 156 153 159 162 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 151 152 150 148 152 156 155 153 148 151 151 144 143 150 152 152 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 82 82 84 84 84 83 81 80 82 78 84 81 81 73 64 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 27 27 29 27 22 19 16 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 109 114 116 126 136 141 159 190 169 146 129 131 104 111 129 185 200 MB DIV 121 122 107 123 150 172 151 101 116 80 66 65 66 42 13 16 31 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 4 6 2 1 -3 -4 1 4 1 -1 0 -3 0 -5 LAND (KM) 375 301 204 135 65 -16 -87 -194 -171 -142 -78 -40 16 67 170 279 269 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.4 81.3 82.0 82.6 83.5 84.3 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.2 88.4 88.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 5 6 4 3 2 4 6 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 53 47 42 39 40 36 20 5 10 22 44 46 43 52 78 84 93 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. -1. -5. -10. -16. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 17. 12. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 28. 34. 43. 45. 41. 36. 28. 18. 10. 9. 11. 14. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.9 79.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 17.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 5.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.71 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 6.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.1% 68.9% 51.8% 39.4% 28.8% 49.3% 39.7% 39.5% Logistic: 47.2% 79.9% 62.4% 59.4% 44.8% 55.5% 61.6% 76.1% Bayesian: 66.3% 89.0% 71.0% 39.9% 49.3% 51.1% 16.5% 87.1% Consensus: 49.2% 79.3% 61.7% 46.3% 41.0% 52.0% 39.3% 67.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/02/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 7( 7) 16( 22) 0( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 56( 56) 53( 79) 0( 79) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 70 79 88 94 78 47 33 29 27 27 27 29 31 34 38 41 18HR AGO 60 59 68 77 83 67 36 22 18 16 16 16 18 20 23 27 30 12HR AGO 60 57 56 65 71 55 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 56 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT