* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 50 57 69 80 83 81 76 75 72 74 77 79 81 82 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 50 57 69 80 67 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 48 59 69 61 39 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 7 7 7 14 14 17 16 13 10 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 0 1 -1 6 5 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 158 177 176 153 133 82 87 71 72 72 79 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 158 156 156 156 158 161 167 163 161 158 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 154 150 149 147 149 152 158 155 153 148 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.5 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 82 84 84 85 84 85 83 83 78 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 17 19 21 24 27 26 22 18 17 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 91 96 104 108 114 136 135 138 149 185 182 168 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 91 117 128 128 153 191 169 108 129 50 86 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 1 5 3 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 329 322 347 371 280 140 43 -11 -97 -205 -182 -151 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.8 78.9 79.8 80.6 81.9 82.8 83.6 84.4 85.4 86.4 87.3 88.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 8 7 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 82 73 57 51 45 38 41 42 13 5 5 8 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 34. 37. 38. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 12. 7. 1. -0. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 22. 34. 45. 48. 46. 41. 40. 37. 39. 42. 44. 46. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 76.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.85 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 37.0% 23.7% 8.7% 8.3% 16.9% 22.3% 36.2% Logistic: 9.2% 59.5% 32.6% 30.1% 25.3% 59.1% 67.9% 87.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 30.9% 8.5% 3.1% 0.4% 12.0% 26.2% 93.0% Consensus: 6.4% 42.5% 21.6% 14.0% 11.3% 29.3% 38.8% 72.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/01/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 50 57 69 80 67 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 45 52 64 75 62 37 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 38 45 57 68 55 30 20 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 44 55 42 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT