* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 55 67 77 83 86 84 82 83 88 89 90 92 91 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 55 67 77 66 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 51 62 71 63 41 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 8 9 13 13 21 16 12 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 2 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 236 163 165 168 152 131 77 75 58 78 84 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 156 159 157 157 156 159 165 163 159 156 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 153 155 152 149 147 150 156 154 150 145 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 81 83 85 84 83 82 79 79 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 17 20 22 22 23 20 19 18 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 89 93 99 105 130 139 136 153 172 190 185 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 58 86 116 126 182 159 210 145 114 68 94 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -1 3 8 2 0 0 -2 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 322 289 272 302 355 172 65 -8 -86 -184 -176 -134 -118 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.0 14.6 14.1 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.1 76.4 77.7 78.8 79.9 81.6 82.6 83.4 84.3 85.2 86.0 86.8 87.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 84 82 72 58 52 41 41 35 21 5 18 22 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 11. 11. 7. 5. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 32. 42. 48. 51. 49. 47. 48. 53. 54. 55. 57. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 75.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.82 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.54 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 36.5% 23.7% 8.6% 8.0% 16.0% 24.8% 45.8% Logistic: 10.4% 53.3% 26.8% 12.9% 8.7% 33.1% 62.5% 85.5% Bayesian: 5.2% 54.0% 21.8% 8.0% 4.8% 23.9% 31.7% 93.4% Consensus: 7.8% 47.9% 24.1% 9.9% 7.1% 24.3% 39.7% 74.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/01/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 49 55 67 77 66 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 50 62 72 61 38 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 42 54 64 53 30 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 43 53 42 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT