* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/27/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 61 63 63 62 50 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 61 63 47 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 60 61 47 33 32 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 2 8 11 15 29 51 99 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 2 2 3 11 12 6 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 203 228 254 251 258 246 238 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.0 26.5 24.9 22.3 19.6 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 137 126 122 111 96 87 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 126 116 114 106 93 83 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 63 61 53 53 63 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 22 24 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 9 7 4 18 102 130 105 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 33 48 59 82 132 141 85 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 2 14 22 31 95 140 0 -157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 120 259 398 342 171 -126 -316 166 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.4 24.5 26.1 27.6 31.7 36.2 39.6 43.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.6 91.2 90.9 90.6 87.3 80.6 71.3 61.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 20 30 38 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 38 6 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -12. -33. -38. -44. -49. -54. -61. -65. -69. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. -5. -24. -30. -36. -42. -50. -57. -62. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.2 90.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.8% 11.4% 8.0% 7.3% 9.6% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 18.6% 9.6% 3.6% 2.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 12.4% 7.0% 3.9% 3.1% 3.7% 2.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/27/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 61 63 47 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 57 58 60 44 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 38 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT