* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 72 75 76 71 64 52 48 44 39 35 33 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 65 59 62 65 68 69 52 35 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 65 51 58 61 64 67 53 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 5 3 9 15 29 51 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 1 4 4 9 13 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 339 29 209 235 256 257 253 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.0 26.6 24.8 22.5 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 142 138 138 123 110 97 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 137 132 127 127 115 105 93 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 61 60 54 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 23 23 20 18 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 24 20 11 21 81 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 4 12 37 58 75 137 163 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -3 -6 1 12 39 105 140 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -66 4 117 252 388 192 -90 -334 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.3 24.4 27.4 31.5 36.1 40.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.9 89.9 90.5 91.2 90.8 87.7 81.1 74.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 20 30 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 36 20 18 38 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -19. -20. -22. -24. -26. -29. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -4. -8. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 6. -1. -13. -17. -21. -26. -30. -32. -35. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.6 87.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 22.4% 18.0% 14.7% 11.8% 10.5% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 12.8% 32.7% 21.1% 16.0% 15.1% 13.3% 3.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 8.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 21.2% 13.8% 10.6% 9.1% 8.0% 4.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/27/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 59 62 65 68 69 52 35 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 65 64 67 70 73 74 57 40 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 68 51 34 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 59 42 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT