* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 64 70 79 86 84 81 65 53 49 45 43 42 42 42 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 64 70 64 69 68 64 41 31 28 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 62 68 66 69 72 68 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 6 4 8 8 6 9 22 25 37 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 2 0 10 5 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 15 7 6 358 326 313 266 266 255 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.0 28.3 27.5 26.0 25.0 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 169 169 152 142 132 117 109 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 151 152 157 159 143 131 122 109 100 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 7 7 7 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 63 63 62 60 59 64 62 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 20 20 22 22 22 21 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 78 56 48 38 25 12 1 16 37 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 61 54 44 43 22 28 37 89 98 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 7 13 31 85 75 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 250 283 317 253 177 -48 170 400 38 -279 -559 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.7 21.0 22.9 25.5 28.9 32.9 36.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.1 84.4 85.0 85.7 87.4 89.1 89.9 88.8 86.5 84.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 8 9 12 12 15 20 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 70 79 89 114 104 36 19 17 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 18. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 25. 34. 41. 39. 36. 20. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 83.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 91.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.56 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.72 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 44.7% 31.9% 22.0% 13.3% 26.7% 31.4% 22.3% Logistic: 9.0% 23.6% 17.5% 9.1% 1.8% 8.6% 15.8% 7.1% Bayesian: 7.6% 15.2% 10.0% 5.1% 3.8% 4.8% 5.2% 0.2% Consensus: 9.6% 27.8% 19.8% 12.1% 6.3% 13.4% 17.5% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/25/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 58 64 70 64 69 68 64 41 31 28 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 51 57 63 57 62 61 57 34 24 21 21 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 53 47 52 51 47 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 35 40 39 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT