* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 46 52 56 62 68 70 66 65 59 58 57 58 60 62 62 V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 52 56 62 49 54 50 49 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 49 53 60 49 53 56 58 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 2 4 7 9 9 20 23 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 331 352 311 282 325 312 292 256 235 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 28.9 28.2 27.4 26.2 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 165 166 167 167 151 140 130 118 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 150 153 154 156 141 130 119 106 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 64 64 59 55 54 52 57 58 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 64 70 74 60 33 19 14 12 38 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 45 34 44 50 42 33 27 42 86 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 19 15 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 224 246 270 308 293 133 -54 194 389 60 -145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.9 21.1 23.0 25.6 28.6 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 83.6 83.8 84.2 84.7 86.1 87.9 89.6 90.3 90.0 89.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 6 7 9 12 12 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 69 73 84 106 85 34 17 14 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 21. 27. 33. 35. 31. 30. 24. 23. 22. 23. 25. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 83.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.49 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 44.2% 31.2% 20.8% 12.4% 27.2% 31.2% 34.1% Logistic: 23.0% 50.5% 48.2% 40.4% 10.1% 34.8% 32.3% 17.3% Bayesian: 18.1% 2.1% 21.8% 20.5% 7.7% 18.0% 9.7% 1.3% Consensus: 17.8% 32.2% 33.7% 27.2% 10.1% 26.7% 24.4% 17.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 41 46 52 56 62 49 54 50 49 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 49 55 42 47 43 42 28 22 21 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 41 47 34 39 35 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 35 22 27 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT