* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 57 55 49 51 48 45 43 41 39 35 30 26 24 23 V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 57 55 49 51 48 45 43 41 39 35 30 26 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 56 56 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 17 22 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 5 5 8 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 179 195 203 188 198 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.1 14.7 11.8 15.6 15.8 10.8 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 75 73 78 78 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 73 72 75 75 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -54.9 -51.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 46 49 49 60 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 40 38 37 36 37 45 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 131 163 182 212 360 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 95 110 90 98 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 1 1 -1 -64 -77 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 522 350 459 780 1140 1176 741 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.1 43.8 45.5 47.5 49.5 54.1 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.3 51.3 47.4 42.4 37.4 28.0 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 33 36 39 38 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 24 CX,CY: 17/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. -42. -45. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. -30. -35. -39. -40. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.1 55.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 60 57 55 49 51 48 45 43 41 39 35 30 26 24 23 18HR AGO 65 64 61 58 56 50 52 49 46 44 42 40 36 31 27 25 24 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 56 50 52 49 46 44 42 40 36 31 27 25 24 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 47 49 46 43 41 39 37 33 28 24 22 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT