* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 73 73 71 66 57 52 49 47 45 42 40 38 37 35 V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 73 73 71 66 57 52 49 47 45 42 40 38 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 75 73 67 60 55 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 22 23 18 5 14 22 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 4 1 1 3 3 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 169 175 178 146 188 200 216 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.5 26.2 26.0 25.3 24.6 13.8 16.7 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 116 114 109 107 75 79 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 99 97 95 96 72 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -55.4 -55.6 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 51 53 54 56 57 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 42 42 43 44 44 41 36 37 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 106 96 78 93 87 145 175 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 76 83 90 96 74 107 105 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 11 2 0 2 5 10 0 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1151 1049 949 868 799 680 414 942 1406 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.6 35.6 36.7 37.7 40.3 43.9 47.8 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 61.5 61.3 60.6 59.9 56.2 49.6 40.2 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 15 25 34 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -14. -20. -27. -32. -35. -38. -41. -45. -46. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -18. -23. -26. -28. -30. -33. -35. -37. -38. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 33.6 61.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 4( 13) 4( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 74 73 73 71 66 57 52 49 47 45 42 40 38 37 35 18HR AGO 75 74 74 73 73 71 66 57 52 49 47 45 42 40 38 37 35 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 70 68 63 54 49 46 44 42 39 37 35 34 32 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 63 58 49 44 41 39 37 34 32 30 29 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT