* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 82 85 85 85 86 87 86 84 81 75 67 53 51 49 46 V (KT) LAND 75 80 82 85 85 85 86 87 86 84 81 75 67 53 51 49 46 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 83 83 82 81 81 80 78 75 69 63 55 51 49 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 5 4 10 10 12 19 22 20 12 25 38 59 12 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -5 0 0 0 4 4 4 1 6 6 18 8 1 0 SHEAR DIR 168 140 103 299 286 228 211 179 169 156 192 181 203 196 111 355 287 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.5 26.4 25.2 24.4 15.2 19.5 14.7 12.4 12.3 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 115 112 112 112 111 108 118 109 105 75 85 75 71 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 101 99 96 95 95 93 91 99 94 94 73 80 72 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 -55.4 -55.5 -51.7 -47.6 -46.1 -47.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 41 44 47 49 45 45 45 46 52 47 39 35 54 79 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 32 34 34 34 35 37 41 43 42 41 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 167 172 172 176 171 135 96 94 70 75 66 109 136 354 423 412 378 200 MB DIV 56 66 35 8 15 27 35 75 57 92 66 68 68 46 48 58 49 700-850 TADV 19 8 2 0 3 4 2 2 0 1 -29 -22 -170 -422 148 120 80 LAND (KM) 1431 1419 1413 1432 1455 1347 1210 1077 925 809 743 541 928 1509 918 559 390 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.3 29.7 30.2 30.6 31.8 33.0 34.2 35.8 37.7 40.0 42.8 46.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 58.6 59.4 60.0 60.5 61.2 61.7 62.0 61.4 59.7 55.5 49.0 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 10 16 24 31 35 33 25 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. -35. -39. -43. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 7. 5. -0. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 0. -8. -22. -24. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 28.9 57.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 461.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 14.5% 10.8% 1.9% 0.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 11.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 12.4% 3.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 10( 21) 10( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 82 85 85 85 86 87 86 84 81 75 67 53 51 49 46 18HR AGO 75 74 76 79 79 79 80 81 80 78 75 69 61 47 45 43 40 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 74 74 75 76 75 73 70 64 56 42 40 38 35 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 65 66 67 66 64 61 55 47 33 31 29 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT