* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 55 61 70 80 84 88 90 93 96 94 95 95 83 61 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 55 61 70 80 84 88 90 93 96 94 95 95 83 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 49 54 58 67 72 74 77 81 83 80 77 77 71 57 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 19 15 13 14 5 13 4 12 14 14 5 19 25 41 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 0 1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 3 -5 -2 1 11 8 9 SHEAR DIR 243 228 232 239 219 184 69 306 246 217 179 152 181 209 192 232 244 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.1 26.9 24.9 21.9 16.5 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 129 130 131 121 118 119 118 116 114 125 107 91 76 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 109 111 112 113 104 101 101 100 97 96 107 95 83 72 75 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.5 -55.2 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.2 0.9 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 44 44 44 43 43 47 48 46 48 48 52 53 53 44 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 27 29 32 34 33 33 34 37 41 40 42 47 42 30 850 MB ENV VOR 139 149 145 154 150 156 161 159 145 118 122 104 109 94 113 131 41 200 MB DIV 13 18 38 50 47 42 51 6 32 37 84 67 44 64 124 45 0 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 7 18 12 4 3 1 2 3 -4 -7 8 12 21 -64 LAND (KM) 1336 1345 1354 1351 1350 1329 1304 1344 1412 1308 1173 1064 933 809 691 576 861 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.8 28.5 29.5 30.5 31.6 32.7 33.8 35.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.5 55.5 55.9 56.3 57.8 59.3 60.5 61.4 62.4 63.0 63.1 61.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 5 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 14 19 23 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 20 17 14 14 5 2 4 5 3 0 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. -0. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 11. 12. 15. 20. 17. 19. 23. 15. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 30. 40. 44. 48. 50. 53. 56. 54. 55. 55. 43. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.6 55.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.44 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 15.8% 10.2% 6.8% 5.7% 8.4% 11.8% 13.6% Logistic: 2.8% 7.2% 5.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.7% 5.3% 2.4% 1.9% 2.9% 4.0% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 50 55 61 70 80 84 88 90 93 96 94 95 95 83 61 18HR AGO 40 39 44 49 55 64 74 78 82 84 87 90 88 89 89 77 55 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 47 56 66 70 74 76 79 82 80 81 81 69 47 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 45 55 59 63 65 68 71 69 70 70 58 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT