* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 89 88 87 77 64 45 29 24 21 20 18 18 19 18 16 V (KT) LAND 85 87 89 88 87 68 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 87 86 82 70 39 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 15 17 34 30 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 11 12 5 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 195 205 215 238 240 247 269 272 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.8 24.6 24.6 23.8 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 145 138 134 103 103 97 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 133 130 123 119 91 90 85 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.1 -50.0 -49.5 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 8 5 4 6 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 62 58 54 43 42 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 34 33 34 34 30 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 22 20 6 5 19 45 16 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 40 46 34 31 39 40 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 12 17 16 20 14 13 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 370 449 373 322 225 -16 -243 -380 -531 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.6 25.4 26.5 27.5 29.9 32.1 33.8 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.4 93.0 93.5 93.6 93.7 93.1 91.8 90.2 88.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 54 51 22 20 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -16. -23. -27. -31. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -14. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. 2. -8. -21. -40. -56. -61. -63. -65. -67. -67. -66. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 23.7 92.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.57 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.5% 18.0% 12.0% 8.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.1% 14.8% 10.8% 10.7% 6.9% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.6% 6.3% 2.9% 6.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.4% 13.0% 8.5% 8.8% 5.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 10( 28) 0( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 9( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 87 89 88 87 68 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 85 84 86 85 84 65 38 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 85 82 81 80 79 60 33 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 55 28 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 47 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 87 78 72 69 53 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 87 89 80 74 70 43 33 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29