* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 91 94 96 96 90 76 66 52 41 31 25 23 20 19 17 V (KT) LAND 90 89 91 95 97 96 90 60 37 30 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 90 86 86 88 90 90 80 53 35 29 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 10 11 16 22 34 34 42 41 56 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 5 5 7 9 6 3 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 114 145 179 202 217 246 248 264 255 260 262 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.6 29.0 28.2 27.2 24.1 24.2 24.0 24.0 23.5 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 153 146 152 140 127 100 100 99 99 96 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 152 143 134 138 124 113 89 88 87 86 84 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -50.7 -49.9 -49.8 -49.1 -48.9 -49.5 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 3 6 3 4 1 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 74 73 74 68 58 47 44 42 41 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 30 32 33 34 31 27 21 16 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 63 41 20 12 24 -3 4 51 38 35 12 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 68 62 36 36 61 30 38 78 36 25 19 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 6 10 0 14 21 25 25 6 3 17 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -49 50 170 278 392 398 170 -96 -281 -444 -646 -637 -499 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.2 26.0 28.1 30.7 32.9 34.7 36.4 37.9 39.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.4 88.6 89.9 90.9 91.9 92.9 92.9 92.0 90.5 88.7 86.4 83.7 81.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 12 13 12 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 49 29 31 56 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -11. -18. -25. -30. -35. -40. -44. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -14. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 3. -2. -11. -20. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 4. 6. 6. -0. -14. -24. -38. -49. -59. -65. -67. -70. -71. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 21.1 87.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.6% 9.8% 8.8% 5.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 8.4% 4.7% 6.4% 8.2% 3.6% 1.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.9% 11.1% 4.8% 5.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 11.3% 6.4% 7.0% 6.3% 4.1% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/07/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 12( 12) 20( 30) 19( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 20( 20) 11( 29) 13( 38) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 91 95 97 96 90 60 37 30 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 90 89 91 95 97 96 90 60 37 30 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 90 87 86 90 92 91 85 55 32 25 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 82 81 75 45 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 70 64 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 68 62 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 91 82 76 72 66 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS