* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 103 108 111 115 120 124 124 118 109 97 79 66 52 45 44 42 V (KT) LAND 95 103 108 111 100 95 99 99 93 84 51 35 29 28 28 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 95 107 116 122 124 104 110 110 101 86 52 34 29 28 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 15 10 8 5 5 7 14 28 23 30 30 48 55 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 4 0 3 3 8 6 6 0 -3 0 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 83 83 89 92 135 226 227 248 242 248 243 254 249 272 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.1 29.6 29.5 29.0 29.0 27.5 26.0 24.1 24.3 25.1 23.7 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 173 163 161 151 151 130 114 99 101 108 98 88 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 173 170 157 149 135 134 115 100 88 89 95 87 79 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -50.1 -50.7 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 6 5 6 4 7 5 6 3 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 73 74 74 75 67 62 54 52 53 52 50 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 25 27 28 32 35 36 36 35 27 22 16 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 87 93 93 79 53 33 25 16 18 26 21 27 41 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 47 67 52 36 55 34 37 33 37 42 57 41 35 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 0 7 3 9 17 19 22 20 16 20 30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 323 327 267 138 -25 103 286 456 288 75 -36 -240 -497 -551 -429 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.9 22.2 23.5 24.9 26.7 28.6 30.7 32.8 35.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.0 83.3 84.5 85.8 87.2 89.4 91.0 91.7 91.8 91.3 90.3 88.8 86.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 11 8 8 10 10 12 13 16 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 100 106 140 104 47 36 38 63 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -34. -39. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 15. 16. 13. 1. -6. -14. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 16. 20. 25. 29. 29. 23. 14. 2. -16. -29. -43. -50. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.8 82.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 20.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.62 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 99.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.61 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 53% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.8% 64.8% 51.5% 43.7% 29.9% 34.7% 26.1% 0.0% Logistic: 50.2% 67.3% 55.6% 52.2% 45.8% 54.0% 36.4% 21.9% Bayesian: 30.5% 79.9% 60.5% 54.2% 28.9% 14.0% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 44.5% 70.7% 55.9% 50.0% 34.9% 34.2% 21.0% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 28( 40) 0( 40) 17( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 15( 23) 0( 23) 49( 61) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 103 108 111 100 95 99 99 93 84 51 35 29 28 28 29 29 18HR AGO 95 94 99 102 91 86 90 90 84 75 42 26 20 19 19 20 20 12HR AGO 95 92 91 94 83 78 82 82 76 67 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 74 69 73 73 67 58 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 71 75 75 69 60 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 103 94 88 85 87 91 91 85 76 43 27 21 20 20 21 21 IN 12HR 95 103 108 99 93 89 93 93 87 78 45 29 23 22 22 23 23