* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 31 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 31 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 32 35 36 41 42 39 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 4 3 4 11 2 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 246 243 233 227 235 229 242 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.3 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.5 24.5 24.7 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 105 103 102 102 106 105 107 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -53.2 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 40 40 38 36 29 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 20 19 18 16 15 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 5 0 -6 -22 -16 -9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -10 7 5 24 22 29 24 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 2 3 1 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1949 1971 1996 2024 1965 1850 1760 1657 1555 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.0 22.9 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.1 133.9 134.6 135.3 136.1 137.3 138.2 139.2 140.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 8 7 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -18. -29. -38. -45. -48. -50. -52. -55. -60. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -15. -22. -30. -40. -53. -61. -67. -72. -77. -83. -89. -96.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.2 133.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##