* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 25 26 29 33 36 37 39 40 44 47 50 51 52 55 V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 25 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 25 22 21 20 22 25 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 21 16 14 18 21 22 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 0 0 -1 -5 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 159 152 152 148 142 144 122 96 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.6 30.8 30.6 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 163 167 169 168 166 167 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 145 149 152 158 158 157 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 51 52 55 59 66 70 75 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 69 76 88 78 81 103 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 25 35 42 67 66 59 54 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 8 9 8 11 9 0 -10 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 78 56 41 20 -1 -52 -57 -62 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.1 21.8 21.5 21.2 20.5 20.3 20.6 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.3 88.7 89.1 89.5 89.9 89.9 89.6 89.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 4 3 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 44 54 56 54 39 31 35 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 42. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.3 87.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.36 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.31 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.77 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.5% 8.3% 6.0% 5.8% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 4.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.9% 3.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2.8% 0.2% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 25 25 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 27 27 25 27 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 24 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 20 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT