* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 61 74 82 87 85 81 69 55 44 36 29 23 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 61 74 82 87 85 81 59 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 45 49 59 69 78 82 79 69 49 34 29 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 2 2 2 3 2 14 17 21 26 37 40 39 32 33 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 1 1 5 1 0 0 6 4 6 0 2 -1 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 349 21 88 260 330 86 233 215 239 232 254 256 257 253 258 260 269 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.5 29.4 29.3 28.3 27.7 26.5 23.9 24.8 25.7 23.9 23.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 172 172 173 173 160 157 140 131 119 98 104 112 99 98 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 167 171 173 173 151 143 122 114 104 87 91 97 88 88 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 2 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 70 72 75 74 73 73 73 71 69 61 59 60 55 50 51 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 16 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 24 21 17 13 11 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 65 68 79 76 77 75 68 51 66 60 36 1 -31 -32 -16 26 37 200 MB DIV 49 63 46 30 45 84 36 46 66 69 34 46 41 58 25 39 16 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 4 15 12 22 28 49 33 30 5 3 -35 LAND (KM) 168 170 188 270 363 122 126 311 390 269 78 -16 -193 -407 -277 -83 177 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.1 18.8 20.7 22.6 24.3 25.6 26.7 28.4 30.5 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.0 79.8 80.8 81.9 84.4 86.7 88.8 90.0 90.5 90.2 89.1 87.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 14 15 14 11 7 7 10 11 12 12 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 115 119 132 135 112 120 45 58 31 20 4 0 0 0 0 0 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 27. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -3. -9. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 4. -3. -8. -11. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 26. 39. 47. 52. 50. 46. 34. 20. 9. 1. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 78.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 11.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.92 7.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 122.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.76 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.91 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 77% is 14.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.7% 56.1% 41.1% 24.9% 20.5% 45.9% 60.1% 77.2% Logistic: 17.8% 66.1% 50.1% 17.1% 11.5% 38.9% 63.2% 78.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 27.6% 10.4% 1.3% 0.7% 4.4% 33.0% 44.2% Consensus: 12.8% 49.9% 33.9% 14.4% 10.9% 29.8% 52.1% 66.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 51 61 74 82 87 85 81 59 38 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 56 69 77 82 80 76 54 33 25 23 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 49 62 70 75 73 69 47 26 18 16 15 15 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 39 52 60 65 63 59 37 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT