* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYSIX AL262020 10/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 43 54 68 80 86 88 84 78 64 53 42 30 19 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 43 54 68 80 86 88 84 78 49 34 29 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 55 65 72 72 67 58 40 31 28 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 3 1 0 6 11 18 16 26 31 36 43 42 57 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 2 2 0 0 0 5 4 4 8 -2 2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 52 19 46 87 264 73 206 221 214 226 246 252 249 247 263 267 281 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.5 29.7 29.1 28.1 27.9 27.1 25.3 24.0 24.5 24.7 23.9 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 171 172 172 173 165 154 137 133 124 107 98 103 105 99 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 157 164 168 170 173 157 139 120 115 106 94 87 91 92 87 78 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 4 2 4 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 70 72 71 70 72 71 70 68 61 57 48 39 32 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 16 18 20 23 25 26 26 25 21 18 14 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 59 73 77 75 60 54 68 73 41 39 7 14 -23 -26 -144 200 MB DIV 54 61 57 29 36 60 60 44 49 75 65 56 61 39 19 -18 -44 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 0 1 -4 5 9 17 19 30 31 28 16 -1 -15 -31 LAND (KM) 100 105 116 190 295 145 151 311 383 290 157 8 -75 -295 -608 -727 -668 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.3 18.9 20.8 22.8 24.4 25.6 26.5 27.7 29.1 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 78.5 79.2 80.1 81.0 83.3 85.8 87.9 89.3 90.1 90.4 90.1 89.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 12 15 14 11 7 6 6 9 11 14 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 124 124 134 158 125 104 62 46 28 24 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 31. 30. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -3. -9. -15. -21. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 12. 5. 0. -5. -11. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 24. 38. 50. 56. 58. 54. 48. 34. 23. 12. -0. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 77.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 133.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.82 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.94 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 68% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 45.4% 31.0% 16.4% 12.9% 28.5% 44.7% 67.6% Logistic: 9.2% 40.3% 26.7% 8.5% 4.6% 23.6% 48.9% 70.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 14.3% 6.5% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 4.2% 19.5% Consensus: 6.4% 33.3% 21.4% 8.6% 5.9% 17.7% 32.6% 52.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 43 54 68 80 86 88 84 78 49 34 29 28 29 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 51 65 77 83 85 81 75 46 31 26 25 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 44 58 70 76 78 74 68 39 24 19 18 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 34 48 60 66 68 64 58 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT