* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYSIX AL262020 10/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 35 39 42 52 68 81 91 95 94 89 81 68 56 52 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 35 39 42 52 59 79 89 93 92 87 69 45 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 37 43 53 62 71 74 71 65 49 36 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 12 7 8 4 2 4 10 15 17 20 24 33 33 34 37 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -1 -1 2 -1 0 0 5 3 8 4 1 6 11 SHEAR DIR 57 64 32 17 34 287 156 188 187 198 210 245 246 251 255 241 281 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.6 29.7 28.8 27.9 27.6 27.0 24.5 24.6 25.1 25.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 169 171 170 171 171 173 173 165 148 134 129 123 101 102 106 107 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 162 163 166 168 172 173 153 131 116 111 105 89 90 92 92 85 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 8 8 6 6 3 4 3 3 2 4 2 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 71 69 70 68 72 72 73 68 62 59 55 47 39 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 14 14 15 18 21 24 26 26 26 25 22 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 49 51 56 73 75 73 59 58 73 58 42 33 12 -1 69 38 200 MB DIV 57 66 68 58 33 53 88 42 80 46 44 25 58 74 39 18 17 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 3 10 10 6 8 16 40 26 8 28 101 LAND (KM) 91 61 70 96 175 219 -10 270 392 331 223 101 -8 -136 -321 -555 -593 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.6 20.1 22.1 23.9 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.2 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.0 77.8 78.5 79.2 79.9 81.8 84.2 86.6 88.5 89.7 90.3 90.3 89.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 10 13 15 13 9 6 6 7 9 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 117 138 135 155 168 114 120 40 44 24 18 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. 34. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. -0. -5. -9. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 18. 17. 15. 9. 3. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -2. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 12. 22. 38. 51. 61. 65. 64. 59. 51. 38. 26. 22. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 77.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 142.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.88 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.94 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 76% is 14.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 34.9% 21.3% 8.5% 8.1% 18.7% 43.2% 75.6% Logistic: 7.5% 30.1% 18.5% 5.2% 2.4% 11.7% 32.6% 62.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 7.8% 2.5% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 2.4% 19.2% Consensus: 5.0% 24.3% 14.1% 4.6% 3.6% 10.5% 26.1% 52.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 TWENTYSIX 10/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 35 39 42 52 59 79 89 93 92 87 69 45 33 29 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 50 57 77 87 91 90 85 67 43 31 27 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 43 50 70 80 84 83 78 60 36 24 20 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 33 40 60 70 74 73 68 50 26 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT